Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Better to buy gold coins, do investments through Gold ETF

Purely from investment angle it  makes no sense to invest in gold  jewellery  for use at a future point of time. Generally, it is seen that people buy jewellery specially during festive season specially when there is no making charges. This jewellery is being purchased for let us say the marriage of your  dear daughter which however is to take place a decade later. Hence, it is recommended that in the year 2013 do buy  jewellery when the purpose  is to buy for your own use and wear but abstain  from investing in jewellry in case you plan to use the jewellery for marriage in the family which will take place after a long interval because  the jewellery would become outdated. It will however be better to go in for buying  gold coins and investments through Gold ETF.

The author is Tax and Investment Consultant at New Delhi for last 40 years.  He is also Director of M/s R.N. Lakhotia & Associates LLP & The Strategy Group.E-mail : slakhotia@airtelmail.in

Mylan Notches Patent Court Fight Win - Analyst Blog

Mylan Inc. (MYL) recently announced that the US district court for the southern district of N.Y. has issued a favorable final judgment in a patent infringement case with Sunovion Pharmaceuticals.

The final verdict was in line with the decision issued by the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. According to the order issued by the court, Mylan's five patents related to its chronic obstructive pulmonary disease drug Perforomist stand as valid and enforceable and are infringed by Sunovion's Brovana. Brovana is approved for controlling the symptoms of COPD, including chronic bronchitis and emphysema. Both Brovana and Perforomist are long-acting beta-2 agonists.

In 2012, Mylan settled its patent dispute with Sunovion Pharma pertaining to Brovana. Sunovion recognized that Brovana infringed two of Mylan's patents, which are valid till Jun 22, 2021.

Following the currently issued favorable ruling, Mylan's seven patents pertaining to Perforomist stand as valid and enforceable and are infringed by Sunovion's Brovana.

We note that the Perforomist inhalation solution is marketed by the Mylan Specialty segment. The drug performed well in the first quarter of 2013. The most significant product in this segment is EpiPen auto-injector, which is used to treat severe allergic reactions.

The bulk of the revenues come from the company's generic division. The generics business has been consistently performing well. Mylan's generic unit has seen quite a few launches over the past few months. One of the important recent launches includes the company's generic version of Pfizer Inc.'s (PFE) erectile dysfunction drug Viagra. Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd. (RDY) too has been making multiple generic launches over the past few months.

Mylan carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (SCR) appears to be equally attractive.

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Wall Street Largely Shrugs Off Weak Refining At Exxon Mobil

Not many companies can miss their quarterly EPS target by 15% and not pay a pretty steep price in the market, but then Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) isn't just any company. With the downside in the second quarter coming almost entirely from the refining business, it seems like investors remain focused on the far larger (and in line) upstream exploration and production operations. Although I don't see any particular risks to the thesis that Exxon will remain an income-producing conduit for investors who want exposure to the energy space, I think a little shopping around can turn up better alternatives.

E&P Carries On
Exxon reported a 2% yoy decline in E&P production this quarter (down 7% sequentially), with liquids production basically flat. That was by and large on target versus Wall Street expectations. Operating costs continue to rise, though, and the 12% drop in unit earnings brought operating profits about 3% below sell-side estimates. On a per-barrel basis, Exxon's unit profits fell 11% to $17/boe, which continues to be better than BP (NYSE:BP), but inferior to Hess (NYSE: HES). Likewise, Exxon has running below Chevron (NYSE:CVX) of late in unit profitability, and that will likely continue this quarter.

SEE: Oil And Gas Industry Primer

If the upstream business was basically okay, the downstream operations were a total mess. Although Valero (NYSE:VLO) and Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) primed investors to expect more challenging conditions in refining, the 71% drop in refining profits led to a result that was only about one-quarter of the estimate. Even if you add back one-time issues like a refinery writedown, it was still a sizable and disappointing miss. Performance in the chemicals business wasn't robust either, as profits declined 8% from last year's level.

It's A Long-Term Capital Return Story
I'm not too surprised that the market is not reacting all that badly to Exxon's reported results. If anything, I would have thought the guidance for a slowdown in share repurchase activity (from about $4 billion in the second quarter and $5 billion for many quarters before that to $3 billion) would have been the bigger worry.

Be that as it may, Exxon isn't a stock to own for quarter-to-quarter wiggles. The basic thesis here remains the idea that Exxon can cost-effectively boost production by 2% to 3% across the next five years, with a variety of projects including major offshore gas developments, unconventional crude reservoirs, and various other global projects. Rising production costs are a concern, of course, but it looks like the major oil and gas companies are being much more conservative with their capital spending in this cycle – to the detriment of companies like National Oilwell Varco (NYSE:NOV).

Will Exxon's Advantages Remain So?
Exxon may boast that it thinks in decades, but the reality is that the company cannot control all of the factors that will drive its performance over the next decade. To that end, consider the refining business – although Exxon should have a relatively "advantaged" position in U.S. refining given its exposure to areas like the Mid-Continent (along with Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC)), that didn't spare the company this quarter.

Likewise, being the largest North American producer of natural gas isn't so advantageous when gas prices are so low and the company can't offset it with better earnings through the chemicals business. Last and not least, it's worth remembering that while Exxon's reserve base is about 51% liquids, close to half of that is in bitumen and syncrude assets – a business that has been generating an increased negative focus in the press.

The Bottom Line
Frankly, these negatives don't strike me as serious long-term issues for Exxon. Bitumen/syncrude/tar sands may not be popular, but people want sub-$4/gallon gasoline. Likewise, I think the long-term outlook for natural gas prices is still pretty positive.

The bigger issue I have with Exxon is that I just don't think its all that cheap right now. Exxon has long enjoyed a premium multiple in the sector, but even with that factored in I think the shares are about 5% above fair value, while alternatives like Chevron and BP look considerably cheaper. If you regard Exxon as a long-term cornerstone of your portfolio, I see no reason to do anything about it, but if you're looking to add new money to the mega-cap energy space, I'd suggest Exxon may not be the best destination.

Disclosure: At the time of writing, the author did not own shares of any company mentioned in this article.


Monday, April 20, 2015

8 Fascinating Reads

Happy Saturday! There are more good news articles, commentaries, and analyst reports on the Web every week than anyone could read in a month. Here are eight fascinating ones I read this week.

How to read smarter
Reading is a skill. The blog Farnam Street shares a tip from the book The Little Book of Talent: 52 Tips for Improving Your Skills on how to become a better reader: 

Research shows that people who follow strategy B [read ten pages at once, then close the book and write a one page summary] remember 50 percent more material over the long term than people who follow strategy A [read ten pages four times in a row and try to memorize them]. This is because of one of deep practice's most fundamental rules: Learning is reaching. Passively reading a book -- a relatively effortless process, letting the words wash over you like a warm bath -- doesn't put you in the sweet spot. Less reaching equals less learning.

One way to get it done 
Charlie Munger grew a publishing company with his investing chops: 

Daily Journal Corp., the California publisher that counts Charles Munger as its chairman, more than tripled in value since 2008 after the company jumped into stocks during the financial crisis.

Best known as Warren Buffett's longtime business partner, Munger began accumulating equities in early 2009 at the Daily Journal. The portfolio was worth $112.3 million as of March 31, or about 65 percent of the Los Angeles-based publisher's current market value ...

Munger's investments were disclosed in a May 2009 filing under the headline, "Liquidity and Capital Resources." The section outlined how the publisher was sitting on about $9 million in gains after spending $15.5 million on common stocks.

The results kept getting better. Three months later, the Daily Journal said the holdings were valued at more than $41 million. By the end of September of that year, they appreciated to almost $48 million.

Had enough 
From CNet, Facebook (NASDAQ: FB  ) is having a harder time holding down talent: 

Facebook executives and senior staffers have been saying goodbye to the social network at a speedy rate ever since its May 2012 initial public offering.

In the past few days alone, head U.S. sales guy Tom Arrix and Gowalla co-founder Josh Williams have said they're headed for the exits. Sure, Facebook, with 4,900 employees, should be forgiven for some expected turnover, but when the top brass bow out in successive fashion, some without rhyme or reason, you can safely bet that it's not all sunshine and rainbows inside the world's largest social network.

Human nature
Yale economist Robert Shiller says bubbles are here to stay: 

Because bubbles are essentially social-psychological phenomena, they are, by their very nature, difficult to control. Regulatory action since the financial crisis might diminish bubbles in the future. But public fear of bubbles may also enhance psychological contagion, fueling even more self-fulfilling prophecies.

One problem with the word bubble is that it creates a mental picture of an expanding soap bubble, which is destined to pop suddenly and irrevocably. But speculative bubbles are not so easily ended; indeed, they may deflate somewhat, as the story changes, and then reflate.

Up-to-the-minute
Mark Schneider in Financial Times has an idea: No more quarterly reports from companies. Instead, financial results should be presented continuously, in real time: 

Increasing the speed of reporting can deliver other benefits to both investors and companies. Businesses would benefit from improved internal financial controls as a result of a streamlined reporting structure. The timeliness of operating decisions would improve with more frequent disclosures. Investors would benefit from tighter financial management.

Gone would be some of the accounting games of the past -- such as the loading of sales into the last business days of a quarter. Yes, commercial practices vary between industries, but still a company with a steeper sales incline at quarter-end than its peers would have some explaining to do. The overall financial industry would also ultimately benefit from a smoother process of sharing information and building expectations.

Overexposed
TD AMERITRADE  (NYSE: AMTD  ) clients had a big exposure to Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) stock on margin: 

One-third of the multi-billion dollar margin balances at TD Ameritrade are in accounts that have more than 25 percent market exposure to Apple.

"Our most widely held stock, our most actively traded stock and our most margined stock is Apple," TD Ameritrade Chief Executive Fred Tomczyk said on a conference call to discuss the firm's quarterly earnings report.

"A very large company that makes up a big part of our margin book has not participated in this rally over the last year."

Bucking the trend
The newspaper industry has tried to stay alive by slashing costs. The Orange County Register did the opposite, and it's thriving:

Conventional media wisdom posits several ways for a newspaper to commit suicide. It can drive up costs by multiplying staff and pagination. It can prioritise print over digital. It can erect a hard paywall to seal itself from the Internet.

Or, if you are the Orange County Register, you can do all three. The California daily did so almost exactly a year ago, prompting astonishment and morbid curiosity. How long would it last? In a crisis-stricken industry more accustomed to death by a thousand cuts, the Register, which dates back a century, at least promised a dramatic and original demise.

But this week, as the paper prepares to celebrate the experiment's first anniversary, it appears to be thriving. "It's working," marvelled the editor, Ken Brusic. "We believe that this will work."

Innovation 
Watch this fascinating video about a new high-speed engine technology:

Enjoy your weekend. 

For more big picture content, check out my report, "Everything You Need to Know About the National Debt." It walks you through step-by-step explanations about how the government spends your money, where it gets tax revenue from, the future of spending, and what a $16 trillion debt means for our future. Click here to read it. 

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

The King Is Dead: HP Loses the PC Crown to Lenovo

It's that time of year again. With June now in the rearview mirror, market researchers Gartner and IDC have now released their respective estimates on PC unit shipments in the second quarter, which will subsequently be followed by their digits on the smartphone and tablet markets.

The two companies may use different methodologies and have slightly different figures, but they agree on one thing: Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ  ) is no longer the top PC vendor in the world by unit volumes. That title has now been transferred to Chinese OEM Lenovo. All 5 of the top vendors declined; Lenovo just declined the least.

Dell (NASDAQ: DELL  ) remains the No. 3 player, but still lags its domestic rival by a fair amount. IDC says Dell's enterprise PC segment performed well, thanks in part to a transition within the enterprise from Windows XP to Windows 7. That's a shift that HP is looking forward to as well.

Vendor

Q2 2013 Shipments

Q2 2013 Market Share

Growth (YOY)

Lenovo

12.6 million

16.7%

(1.4%)

HP

12.4 million

16.4%

(7.7%)

Dell

9.2 million

12.2%

(4.2%)

Acer

6.2 million

8.2%

(32.6%)

ASUS

4.6 million

6.1%

(21.1%)

Total Market

75.6 million

100%

(11.4%)

Source: IDC. YOY = year over year.

Acer and ASUS got hit particularly hard, with year-over-year drops well into the double digits. Both OEMs have historically enjoyed strong positions in the low end, which is being eaten alive by tablets. Their high-end Ultrabooks aren't picking up the slack.

The overall market remains soft, with worldwide shipments falling 11.4% to 75.6 million, according to IDC. That's a sequential improvement from the 14% drop that the market saw in the first quarter. IDC was quick to blame Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) Windows 8 for the weakness in Q1, saying it was "clear" that the new platform "slowed the market." IDC still thinks that the market is "struggling with the transition," but a wider range of Windows 8 models in the U.S. definitely helped this time around as OEMs test different form factors.

Gartner, on the other hand, disagrees. The researcher thinks blaming Windows 8 is "unfounded," since it doesn't properly explain the PC's sustained decline, nor does it explain Apple's performance.

This actually isn't the first time that HP has lost the crown to Lenovo. In Q3 2012, Gartner said Lenovo had come out on top, but IDC still pegged HP as the No. 1 vendor, as the two researchers had slightly different estimates. This time, there's now consensus that HP is no longer the PC king.

It's incredible to think just how much of our digital and technological lives are almost entirely shaped and molded by just a handful of companies. Find out "Who Will Win the War Between the 5 Biggest Tech Stocks?" in The Motley Fool's latest free report, which details the knock-down, drag-out battle being waged by the five kings of tech. Click here to keep reading.

Sunday, April 5, 2015

Facebook Wants to Become Zynga

Considering Zynga's (NASDAQ: ZNGA  ) expeditious fall from grace, it's hard to imagine any company looking on enviously -- especially one that has a unique insight to Zynga's business: Facebook (NASDAQ: FB  ) .

For years, Facebook and Zynga have been two peas in a social pod. Last quarter, 76% of Zynga's bookings were generated through Facebook. Last fiscal year, Zynga comprised 9% of Facebook's total revenue. The social network noted that Zynga's contribution to its payments business continues to fall, and Zynga wan't mentioned in the most recent 10-Q as a 10% customer.

As part of Zynga's turnaround efforts -- before yesterday's announcement that Don Mattrick would be leaving Microsoft to become Zynga CEO -- Zynga had begun to explore game publishing as a way to diversify away from casual gaming toward the "mid-core" segment. The company tapped developer Phosphor Games to release Horn last year, which earned strong reviews and climbed the charts.

TechCrunch is reporting that Facebook may be looking to also enter the game publishing business now. The company is supposedly partnering with smaller independent developers, cutting distribution deals with ads in exchange for a percentage of sales. Facebook is more concerned with distribution and isn't influencing the content of the games, which other publishers tend to do.

Facebook's gaming platform, which drives the vast majority of its payments revenue, was once soaring but has cooled over the past couple of years. Instead, users are shifting to mobile gaming platforms where Facebook doesn't get a cut.

Source: SEC filings.

Some of the growth has been a function of Facebook's growing user base. Isolating average revenue per user within the payments segment, the payments business has regressed further in this respect with payments ARPU actually lower than it was in late 2011.

Source: SEC filings and author's calculations.

The North American market is where Facebook enjoys the highest payments ARPU, which is more than three times as high as in Europe. Facebook doesn't disclose these figures specifically, so some manual calculations are required.

Geographical Segment

Payments ARPU (MRQ)

US & Canada

$0.65

Europe

$0.21

Asia

$0.07

Rest of World

$0.03

Worldwide

$0.20

Source: SEC filings and author's calculations. MRQ = most recent quarter.

With that in mind, Facebook is likely going after domestic game makers with its publishing forays. With the payments business beginning to slow, the social network is hoping some direct intervention can reinvigorate gamer interest.

It's incredible to think just how much of our digital and technological lives are almost entirely shaped and molded by just a handful of companies. Find out "Who Will Win the War Between the 5 Biggest Tech Stocks?" in The Motley Fool's latest free report, which details the knock-down, drag-out battle being waged by the five kings of tech. Click here to keep reading.