Just for the record, I can't stand Vringo, Inc. (NASDAQ:VRNG). I've never agreed with its business model - litigation of patents that in retrospect probably shouldn't have been granted in the first place - and the investor hype that VRNG has surrounded itself with has largely obscured the truth and reality of its pivotal court case with Google (NASDAQ:GOOG).... a case that is now in post-verdict review, as the judge decides just how much money should be awarded. Yet, despite the fact that I'm anything but a fan of the company, I've got a funny feeling the stock's just a few days away from a major rally.
As those who've been following the Vringo story know all too well, though, there's more to it than just that, and "due process" has become something of a gray area as the matter finds itself in the middle of the court system, the U.S. patent office, and common sense. With all three forces already being blurred about where they stand, being caught in the middle of all three has just been absolutely maddening for Vringo, Inc.
Unlike most of the amateur journalists - and also probably shareholders - I don't come here to preach the merits of Vringo. Like I said above, I've found myself in the anti-Vringo camp more often than not. BUT, also like a said above, I've got a sneaking suspicion VRNG shares are on the verge of a monster-sized bullish move.
It's the shape of the chart that leads me to that conclusion. Slowly but surely, the post-verdict lull [the verdict from the suit against Google was handed down in October] has quietly been building into an uptrend. Actually, scratch that last statement. It's not an uptrend yet. I think it's going to be one soon, though. Here's why.
As you can see, since April, VRNG has made a string of higher lows. As you can also see, since March, Vringo shares have tested the 200-day moving average line (green) several times. Each brush of the 200-day average has promptly pushed the stock lower again. Additionally, as of this month, the stock's 20-day moving average line (blue) has crossed back above the 100-day (gray) and 50-day (purple). In fact - and this is the clincher - it looks like the stock is now, finally, finding support at those shorter-term moving average lines. The final clue we need is a move above the 200-day moving average line at $3.22, but given several months' worth of build-up, I'm pretty certain we'll get it. And once we do, it's off-to-the-races. Take a look.
Critics will be quick to point out that charts don't matter - fundamentals do. And in the case of Vringo, it's not even like the fundamentals matter, since there are none. The only thing really driving this stock is the promise of future settlements, or jury-awarded cash. I'll just say this - Vringo Inc. is one of those cases where the hype and buzz and speculation surrounding the stock has become far bigger than the company itself. In those rare cases, the chart reflects the ever-changing opinion of the stock's potential. Since it's opinion that's ultimately driving the stock's price, though, the chart suggests how public opinion is taking shape.... and will take shape in the future. (Sadly, human behavior is pretty predictable. This chart just puts that opinion on an X and Y axis, and shows us the brewing trend.)
Bottom line? If you wanted to take a swing on a long VRNG position, the odds are looking in your favor right now. If you wanted to wait until Vringo Inc. shares crossed above the 200-day moving average line - a reasonable reassurance - that would leave a little money on the table, but would reduce your risk quite a bit. Either way, the breakout's been brewing for a while, and I've got a feeling it's going to boil over soon... bullishly.
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